Tony Tyler gave the keynote address this morning. The full text can be found here. He talks about the potential outcomes for aviation at the Copenhagen conference in December:

"So, what of Copenhagen itself and the outcome of this two-week meeting of national governments, business and NGOs?

Well, the first job we’ll have to do is to cut through the hype and political ballyhoo that will that will turn Copenhagen into Sound Bite City for a fortnight in December.

At the end of it all, I see the possibility of three very different scenarios, each with its own impact, good and bad.

Scenario 1 is what we’d all like to see – a landmark moment for aviation with a global sectoral approach for tackling emissions agreed by the UNFCCC, with ICAO’s role in leading the industry preserved. As a result, aviation pays once and once only for its emissions with regional schemes such as the EU ETS scaled back, and taxes such as APD stripped of their phoney environmental veneers.

Scenario 2 is what I call the ‘quick fix’.  It’s based on the notion that, having failed to deliver anything meaningful at Copenhagen the parties agree that a global air transport levy represents an easy way to deal with the aviation emissions problem.  At the same time, the idea of a global sectoral approach is rejected and further regional or national schemes emerge. Moreover, ICAO loses its emissions management role.

I think I have already pointed out why that is a nightmare scenario– one we definitely don’t want to see emerge from December’s talks.

The third scenario represents, well, nothing at all being achieved – political gridlock.  If there is no firm agreement at Copenhagen, it could pave the way for more nation states to impose their own arbitrary emissions targets on aviation and lead to the emergence of more regional trading schemes or taxes in an attempt to drive down emissions. 

None of us need reminding that such a scenario would add considerable cost and complexity to an already struggling industry."

The press release from Cathay Pacific can be found here. The full text of Tylers speech is here. We will be interviewing him later on today.